OPEC: Dangote Refinery Shaping European Petrol Markets

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revealed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) is significantly affecting the European petrol market.

Since beginning operations in January 2024 and commencing PMS production in September, the Dangote Refinery, with its 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity, has not only addressed Nigeria’s fuel import dependency but also exported petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to markets within and beyond Africa.

In a report released on Wednesday, OPEC highlighted how the refinery’s emergence has reduced Nigeria’s dependence on European petroleum imports.

“The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline (petrol) exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market,” OPEC stated.

It added, “Continued gasoline production in Nigeria, a country that has relied heavily on imports to meet its domestic fuel needs in the past, will most likely continue to free up gasoline volumes in international markets, calling for new destinations and flow adjustments for these extra volumes.”

Impact on European Markets

The report noted that Rotterdam’s gasoline crack spread against Brent crude saw slight increases due to healthy exports. However, inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub remain high, with further builds expected amid seasonal demand pressures and the lengthening gasoline balance in the Atlantic Basin.

OPEC predicted that these trends, coupled with rising refinery output, could exacerbate bearish sentiment in the European market.

Nigeria’s Oil Production Trends

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report also revealed that Nigeria’s crude oil production reached an average of 1.507 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December 2024, up from 1.477 mbpd in November. Government-supplied data slightly differed, indicating 1.485 mbpd for the same period.

Dangote Refinery’s Global Standing

According to Bloomberg data, the $20 billion Dangote Refinery, which can process 650,000 barrels per day, ranks above Europe’s largest refineries, including Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands (404,000 bpd) and BP Rotterdam (380,000 bpd).

Other top European refineries, such as TotalEnergies Antwerp (338,000 bpd) and ExxonMobil Antwerp (307,000 bpd), also fall short of Dangote’s capacity, cementing its status as a global refining powerhouse.

The Dangote Refinery’s strategic operations are reshaping global fuel dynamics, with its influence extending well beyond Africa to impact European markets.

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